Accentuating the positive?

Estimating emissions associated with indirect land use change (ILUC) is a fundamental part of analysing the likely net GHG emissions impacts of biofuel mandates, and in some regulations (e.g. U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, California Low Carbon Fuel Standard and ICAO’s CORSIA) estimates of ILUC emissions associated with specific feedstocks have been integrated into regulatory lifecycle […]

Comparing GTAP ILUC results to observations of ethanol related land use change

For over ten years, indirect land use change modeling has been an important part of assessing the environmental impact of U.S. biofuel policy. While several models have been developed to undertake these assessments, notably the FAPRI-FASOM model used by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in determining the lifecycle emissions of fuels supported by the Renewable […]

Accentuating the positive – has optimism bias driven reductions in ILUC estimates?

Indirect land use change, often abbreviated to ILUC, refers to the expected expansion of agricultural area (and subsequent release of carbon from biomass and soils) when biofuel policies increase demand for agricultural commodities. In 2008, research led by Tim Searchinger using the FAPRI economic model[1] suggested that accounting for these ILUC emissions might eliminate the […]

Navigating the maize

Update – An updated critique reacting to republished results from USDA is available here: Earlier in 2017, the United States Department of Agriculture published a study undertaken by the consultants ICF International that included a reassessment of the lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity of corn ethanol. The report concluded that corn ethanol’s greenhouse gas intensity […]